Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

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Stratofreighter
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by Stratofreighter »

About That Airplane Part That Was Supposed to Solve the MH370 Mystery ...

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... -part.html
Tomorrow marks one month since a piece of a Boeing 777 washed up on the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion, but French investigators are no closer to confirming that the part came from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. In fact, leaks from within the investigation suggest that the part might not have come from the plane at all.
What was holding things up, it turned out, was that the ID plate that should have been attached to the inboard edge of the flaperon was missing. And that was not the only problem. According to the New York Times, Boeing and the National Transportation Safety Board found that the object did not match Malaysia Airlines’ maintenance records.
The story briefly faded from the public eye. Then, on August 21, the French news outlet La Dépêche ran a report citing sources within the investigation who indicated that the technical examination of the flaperon had ended without the hoped-for evidence being found. A few days later, Le Monde ran a report that echoed the Times’ earlier reporting: “[M]aintenance work that Malaysia Airlines has indicated it carried out on the flaperon does not exactly match that observed on the discovered piece.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... -part.html
is worth a read, even if only for the links to other "reputable media" it directs to.
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ehusmann
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by ehusmann »

Well, there is always the opposite; proof it by "reductio ad absurdum". If it is not from MH370, then from which plane is it? If no cedible alternative source can be identified, then the only logical explanation will remain that it is from MH370 and the maintenance records are incorrect.

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mac
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by mac »

It would be logical. But to assume or guessing that is should be a part of MH370 is probably not an explanation that will be accepted by many people/organisations etc.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by ehusmann »

Proof by "reductio ad absurdum" is not quessing or assuming, it is a proof. Just as much proof as a number plate would have been. It is a bit harder and usually not the first approach one would use, but proof nonetheless and in mathematics a very common method to tackle difficult issues.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by mac »

Well it is proof by proofing that other (known) possible causes/reasons are not plausible. But it is not watertight according wiki. And in aviation nothing is accepted as proof or cause untill it is 100% sure.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

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It depends on your starting hypothesis. If it were possible (I cannot say if it is) to make a list of all B777 flaperons ever built and if it were possible to pinpoint the current whereabouts of each of them, except for the two of the missing MH370, then you have a pretty watertight proof that the found one is in fact from MH370.
On the other hand, if you start by all possible ways how this particular flaperon could have washed ashore on La Reunion then I am sure you can rule out most options, but some will remain somewhat possible (like it was dropped in the ocean by the US government to make it look like a part from MH370, bla bla). In that case, the proof is far less watertight.

And by the way, 100% certainty is almost never possible, not even in aviation. Yes, investigators strive for it and yes they more often than not come damn close, but stating that 'only 100% sure' is good enough is not really credible. Moreso in this case, as this piece alone will say little about the cause of the accident.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by Key »

Very well explained, Erwin, thanks.

However, here seems to be the end to the need for 'indirect' methods, at Reuters: France says wing part found on Reunion island definitely from MH370.
Reuters wrote:a technician from Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) in Spain, which had made the part for Boeing, had formally identified one of three numbers found on the flaperon as being the serial number of the MH370 Boeing 777

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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by streep »

Must be lost in translation, spaninsh to french to English. As the serial number of the 777 will not be on the flaperon, since this is a replaceable part.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by Key »

Yeah, or deliberately simplified for the public... I automatically assumed it's about _some_ number that ties it to 9M-MRO.

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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

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http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-up ... 7605014675
November 11, 2015
11:24pm

MH370 search halted for ten days


A MEDICAL emergency on board an MH370 search vessel has taken the ship out of action for ten days after it returned to port with the ailing crew member.

The latest update from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) revealed Fugro Discovery was left with no choice but to make the five-day trip back to Fremantle, with the man suffering suspected appendicitis.

“At the time the crew member became unwell, Fugro Discovery was more than 2000 kilometres from Fremantle — well beyond the range of any land-based helicopter,” the ATSB update said.

“The only viable option was to return to port.”

An ATSB spokesman said the incident was a “timely reminder of the difficult conditions in which crew members work”.

“The vessels spend 42 days at sea between port calls in weather conditions that can be physically arduous and fatiguing for the crew,” he said.

“The risk of a serious illness or injury on board a search vessel is a real possibility and for this reason the vessels have a doctor on board along with appropriate medical equipment and supplies.”

Fugro Discovery is now on its way back to the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean but is not due to arrive until the weekend.

Australia has budgeted $90 million for the search, and Malaysia has pitched in $75 million.

Despite having the largest number of passengers on board, with 152, China has refused to contribute to the cost of the complex search.

The campaign is due to be completed by May next year, and if there is no new evidence, authorities are expected to discontinue the search in the southern Indian Ocean.

To date the only debris confirmed as coming from MH370, has been a flaperon found washed ashore on Reunion Island near Madagascar in July.

Oceanographers and other experts said the discovery of the wing part was consistent with tidal movements, and confirmed searchers were looking in the right place for the aircraft.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34991047
MH370 search: Australia 'likely looking in right place'

3 hours ago

MH370 search: Australia 'likely looking in right place'

Australian officials say they believe they are searching in the right area for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

A new analysis of data carried out by a defence department /
http://atsb.gov.au/media/5733650/AE-201 ... ec2015.pdf
shows the plane is probably in the southern end of the Indian Ocean search zone, where the operation will now be focused.

Deputy PM Warren Truss said officials were "optimistic" it would be found.

But he said the search operation was likely to end by June 2016.

Part of an aircraft wing, known as a flaperon, was found on Reunion Island in July, roughly 4,000km from the search zone.

Although tests in France confirmed it had come from MH370, officials said it had been carried there by the ocean currents so did not affect their search plans.

In its technical report issued on Thursday, the Australian Defence Science and Technology Group said a "comprehensive analysis of the available data" showed that as previously thought, MH370 had almost certainly gone down in the southern stretch of the existing search area.

The JACC said the report "affirms the focus of search efforts to date", and that it was now focusing on a shortened but slightly widened section of ocean.
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by Alpha Kilo One »

So. Not good at all..... :-(
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by tatoo »

For me it's logical that the new debris in Thailand washed ashore there, judging the first "lost contact".
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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 missing.

Post by ehusmann »

Except that this debris is not from MH370 and if it would have washed ashore in Thailand, it would have done so over a year ago....

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